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- Imd Monsoon Rainfall Prediction June 2025; Gujarat Kerala Mumbai | Rain forecast
New Delhi11 minutes ago
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Earth Science Ministry Secretary M Ravichandran has said that India Forecast System has been used since May 27.
The Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that the country is expected to receive more than normal rainfall in the month of June, which could be 108 percent of LPA (long period average).
Meteorological Director General Mrityunjay Mahapatra said that more than normal rainfall is expected in Central and South India. North-west India may receive normal, while the Northeast may receive less than normal rainfall.
Earth Science Ministry Secretary M Ravichandran said- In the current season, the core zone of the monsoon is expected to be more than normal (more than 106% of long period average). He also will also use India Forecast System from today.
The core zone of the monsoon includes Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha and surrounding areas. Most of these rainfall occurs during the South West monsoon and this region depends a lot on monsoon rains for farming.
What is long period average
This means that the Meteorological Department has set 87 cm (870 mm) to the long period average (LPA) for the southwest monsoon based on the period of 1971-2020. If a year’s rainfall is more than 87 cm, it is considered more than normal. If low, it is considered a weak monsoon.
Know what is India Forecast System
The Government of India today launched the Advance India Forecast System (BFS). Union Minister of State for Science and Technology Dr. Jitendra Singh handed it over to the country. This system will help the panchayat level in disaster management, farming, water management and public safety.
The BFS system will give more accurate and smallest information about the weather than ever. It has been prepared by the Indian Indian Institute and Tropical Metrological (IITM) in Pune.
The BFS system will estimate the weather at a resolution of 6 km, which is the best in the world. With this, the smallest meteorological phenomena such as rain, storm can be detected more accurate than before. M Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Science, said that now the weather forecast will be more local and accurate than before.
He informed that earlier supercomputers Pratyush was being used, but now the new supercomputer Arka will be used. Pratyush used to take 10 hours to run the weather model, while Arca completes the work in just 4 hours. This system takes data from 40 Doppler radar and will be better with 100 radars in the future. This will make it possible for 2 hours local forecasting.
Monsoon reached Kerala 8 days ahead of due time The monsoon reached Kerala on 24 May. It arrived 8 days ahead of its scheduled time. According to the Meteorological Department, this happened for the first time in 16 years when the monsoon came so soon. The monsoon arrived 9 days ago in 2009. At the same time, there was a knock on 30 May last year.
The monsoon usually reaches Kerala on 1 June and covers the entire country by 8 July. It starts returning back around September 17 and goes back completely by 15 October.
According to meteorologists, there is no connection between the onset date of the monsoon and the total rainfall during the season. Its arrival quickly or late does not mean that it will cover other parts of the country in the same way.
Monsoon reached Kerala in 1972 late in 1972 According to IMD data, the dates of monsoon reaching Kerala in the last 150 years have been quite different. In 1918, the monsoon first reached Kerala on 11 May, while in 1972, the most delayed reached Kerala on 18 June.
Al Nino is unlikely in the monsoon this year The Meteorological Department said in April that El Nino is unlikely during the 2025 monsoon season. That is, there will be more rain than normal this year. The possibility of low rainfall is negligible. El Nino was active in 2023, due to which the monsoon season received 6 percent less rainfall than normal.
El Nino and La Nina Climate (Climate) have two patterns-
- El Nino: In this, the temperature of the sea increases by 3 to 4 degrees. Its effect is twice in 10 years. Due to its effect, there is more rainfall in the area with high rainfall and less rainfall area.
- La Nina: In this, sea water is rapidly cooled. This affects the weather around the world. The sky is cloudy and it rains good.
Why did the monsoon reach early this year? This time the main reason for early monsoon in India is the increased moisture in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The sea temperature was above normal, causing the monsoon winds active rapidly. The western winds and the stir of cyclones also helped the monsoon to move forward. Apart from this, climate change is also becoming a major reason for changes in weather patterns.
Does the monsoon come early means to end early? The arrival of monsoon does not decide that it will end soon. It depends on many complex processes associated with the weather, such as sea temperature, air pressure and global weather patterns in the Bay of Arabian Sea and Bengal.
If the monsoon arrives before time, but its speed remains good, then it can give normal or good rain in the whole country, but if the monsoon comes quickly or becomes weak, it may cause less rain. Sometimes the monsoon arrives late, but lasts for a long time and gives good rain.
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